By James Davey
LONDON, March 31 (Reuters) – UK grocery inflation held at 4.3% in the four weeks to March 22, researcher Worldpanel by Numerator reported on Tuesday, maintaining pressure on consumers ahead of an expected further rise in food prices due to the Iran war.
The Worldpanel data provides an early indication of pricing pressures in March ahead of official UK data on April 22.
It said prices were rising fastest in markets such as unprocessed meat and coffee and falling fastest in butter and sugar confectionery.
The first clear increase in prices paid by UK households due to the Iran war’s impact on energy prices has been felt by drivers at the fuel pumps, while farmers have warned of higher food prices from next month, starting with tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers, which are grown in heated greenhouses.
Farmers have also said the soaring cost of fertiliser will eventually impact food prices.
Worldpanel said each additional 1% on the rate of grocery inflation could add over 50 pounds ($66) to the average household’s annual bill.
“With grocery inflation likely to increase and fuel costs rising sharply, the conditions that make shoppers feel vulnerable are only intensifying,” Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said.
Britons are already facing a jump in a raft of household bills in April, including council (local) taxes, water, mobile phone and broadband contracts.
Separate data on Tuesday from the British Retail Consortium showed overall shop price inflation edged up to 1.2% in March.
Worldpanel said UK grocery sales rose 4.4% over the four weeks year-on-year.
It said that over the 12 weeks to March 22 industry leader Tesco and number two Sainsbury’s continued to win market share.
Discounter Lidl GB remained the fastest growing bricks-and-mortar grocer, while online supermarket Ocado remained the fastest growing overall.
Number three player Asda continued to lose share.
UK supermarkets’ market share and sales growth (%)
% change in
Market share Market sales
12 weeks to share 12 (year-on-ye
March 22 weeks to ar)
2026 March 23
2025
Tesco 28.0 27.7 5.0
Sainsbury’s 15.6 15.3 5.5
Asda 11.6 12.1 -0.9
Aldi 10.6 10.8 2.3
Morrisons 8.3 8.4 2.3
Lidl 8.3 7.8 9.6
Co-operative 5.1 5.4 -1.7
Waitrose 4.7 4.6 5.8
Iceland 2.3 2.4 2.3
Ocado 2.2 2.0 12.3
Source: Worldpanel by Numerator
($1 = 0.7583 pounds)
(Reporting by James Davey, Editing by Paul Sandle)
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