April 2 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump told the nation in a televised speech on Wednesday night that the U.S. military had nearly completed the goals it had set out to accomplish in its war with Iran and that the conflict would soon be ending.
He added that the U.S. would continue to hit targets in the Islamic Republic over the next two to three weeks. Stocks fell, the dollar firmed and oil rose after Trump’s speech.
Below are some reactions from investors and analysts:
RUSSEL CHESLER, HEAD OF INVESTMENTS AND CAPITAL MARKETS, VANECK AUSTRALIA, SYDNEY:
“The markets are certainly not interpreting the speech as positive. If he was trying to inspire confidence in the markets, he has not done that. The key question in all investors’ minds is ‘when is this going to be over?’, that is what is creating the volatility. When you think it’s going to go for longer that is when you see markets starting to pull back.
“When you think it’s going to come to an end soon then markets are going up. When you are dealing with these sorts of volatile markets you do see dollar strengthening, but I do think longer-term the dollar structurally will continue to decline. We are looking at a situation now where we are getting into a stagflation situation with lower growth and higher inflation expectations.”
PRASHANT NEWNAHA, SENIOR RATES STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES, SINGAPORE:
“The only thing that really matters is whether the Strait of Hormuz will open soon. Trump’s speech doesn’t imply this is likely to happen as quickly as the markets were expecting. Threats that the U.S. will strike Iranian power plants if no deal is reached and that it will bring Iran back to the Stone Age points to further escalation.
“Further, the risk of additional upstream counterattacks implies the strait is likely to be shut for at least another month and beyond that is anybody’s guess. His comments on the duration of other wars was notable, in that even if the war with Iran lasts a few months, it’s not as long as prior wars. Expect USD and oil to move higher while risk is shed.”
ZHIWEI ZHANG, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT PINPOINT ASSET MANAGEMENT, HONG KONG:
“The outlook is clearly still highly uncertain. The only certain message is that the war will continue at least two to three weeks, so there will be continued intensive bombing. The market didn’t take it in a positive way as you can see that the oil price rebounded and the equity market futures declined. I think the hope for a very quick resolution is fading.”
DANNY KHOO, HEAD OF SALES TRADING, SAXO, SINGAPORE:
“Ahead of the press conference, markets expected Trump to outline a plan to wind down the war within the next two to three weeks. Instead, he warned that the U.S. would strike Iran ‘extremely hard’ over the coming weeks and threatened to target Iran’s power infrastructure if no deal is reached.”
“These remarks raised escalation risks and increased the potential for Iranian retaliation. Trump also noted that equity markets had not fallen as much as he had expected, saying ‘it hasn’t been that bad,’ a comment that was followed by renewed selling pressure in equities.”
MIKE HOULAHAN, DIRECTOR, ELECTUS FINANCIAL LTD, AUCKLAND:
“I don’t think there was an awful lot in the speech per se, apart from the fact that they’re going to keep bombing for the next two to three weeks. That pushes out the resolution timeframe farther.
“The next question is because he’s extended it, confirmed it’s going to take another two to three weeks, does that put added pressure on the fuel supply chain. We know Australia is getting a bit skinny in terms of supply – does that push them further into having to work from home?”
MATT SIMPSON, SENIOR MARKET ANALYST, STONEX, BRISBANE:
“Trump sounded pretty miserable for a man who has had so much winning in this war. With no plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that he effectively closed, oil prices are to remain high indefinitely. So we’re just sat here waiting for the next round of inflation while Trump leaves with his tail between his legs.”
JON WITHAAR, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT, SINGAPORE:
“We have no additional certainty or clarity around timeline from this address and this is what the market was looking for. The fact that we can expect 2-3 more weeks of action, boots on the ground were not ruled out and that threats to hit infrastructure were reiterated will put the market back on the defensive, particularly as we come into the long weekend.”
TONY SYCAMORE, MARKET ANALYST, IG, SYDNEY:
“There was a base case here that you were going to see continued de-escalation, which we had seen over the past couple of days. By and large, we did see that, but I think the market wanted a little bit more.
“There wasn’t a lot new for me.
“(The Strait of Hormuz) remains the variable in everybody’s playbook.
“When you look at the stock markets we’re seeing a bit of a buy-the-rumour, sell-the-fact type reaction, and for crude oil the opposite.”
“But now there’s another two to three weeks of uncertainty hanging overhead for markets.”
KAZUNORI TATEBE, CHIEF STRATEGIST AT DAIWA ASSET MANAGEMENT, TOKYO:
“There was no mention in Trump’s speech about the details on when the war ends or when the passage of the Strait of Hormuz will become possible. There are still uncertainties. So the domestic equities are not going to head for a further rise. We need another step forward, like the possibility for the opening of the strait. The positive side is that the war is not going to escalate.”
(Reporting by Ankur Banerjee and Gregor Stuart Hunter in Singapore, Junko Fujita and Satoshi Sugiyama in Tokyo. Jiaxing Li and Summer Zhen in Hong Kong, Scott Murdoch in Sydney; Compiled by Sumeet Chatterjee; Editing by Sam Holmes)
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