ORLANDO, Florida, Feb 23 (Reuters) – Wall Street fell sharply on Monday as renewed global tariff uncertainty and rumbling software-fueled AI fears slammed shares and steered investors to the traditional safe-haven harbors of gold, Treasuries and the Swiss franc.
In my column today, I look at how the disinflationary drag from oil prices is evaporating. As oil rises, the year-on-year price change is poised to turn positive, a potentially unwelcome inflationary impulse for policymakers to consider.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.
Today’s Key Market Moves
Today’s Talking Points
* Tariffied and confused
Just when investors, businesses, and consumers thought they had weathered U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff storm, they face a new whirlwind of uncertainty and chaos, after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that most duties were unlawful, and Trump immediately hit back with a new, temporary, 15% global levy.
What does this mean for federal budget revenues, legal proceedings for tariff refunds, existing and future trade deals, the midterm U.S. elections, inflation, and asset prices? The truth is, no one really knows. Amid so much uncertainty, investors are understandably going on the defensive.
* Private credit fears – justified or not?
Jitters continue to spread through the opaque world of private credit, with investors spooked by lenders’ exposure to the battered U.S. software sector, liquidity concerns, and alternative asset manager Blue Owl halting redemptions at one of its funds.
Blue Owl shares slid another 3% on Monday, meaning the firm has lost almost a quarter of its value this month. Shares in private credit giants Apollo and KKR slumped 5% and 9% on Monday, respectively. UBS analysts estimate that, in a worst-case scenario, private credit defaults could rise 8% over the next year.
* U.S.-RoW divergence widens
As the U.S. software rout deepens – the sector is down 25% this year and has wiped out almost all its post-“Liberation Day” gains from April – the S&P 500 on Monday dipped back into negative territory for the year.
The Nasdaq is down 3% and the Dow is still up 1.5% YTD, but compare the big three U.S. indices with their global peers – Europe’s STOXX 600 is up 6%, Britain’s FTSE 100 is up 8%, and Japan’s Nikkei is up 12%. And look at chipmakers Taiwan and South Korea, where stocks are up 16% and 38%, respectively.
What could move markets tomorrow?
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(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)
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