PARIS, March 5 (Reuters) – France will hold municipal elections on March 15 and 22, votes seen as a key test ahead of next year’s presidential election.
The two-round ballot will measure the strength of the far-right National Rally (RN) and showcase what types of alliances could emerge in an increasingly fragmented landscape.
WHY FRENCH MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS MATTER
Heading nearly 35,000 communes – from major cities to villages with only a few dozen residents – mayors are France’s most trusted elected officials, seen by voters as the political figures closest to their daily concerns.
Local results can also shape national momentum and reveal which themes resonate with voters, especially when they take place just over a year before the next presidential election.
WHAT IS AT STAKE FOR THE RN
The anti-immigration, eurosceptic party, which has so far struggled to make meaningful gains at a local level, is treating the March votes as a critical step toward building momentum for the 2027 presidential ballot.
It hopes to consolidate towns it already controls and expand into larger urban areas, saying it would field about 650 lists, substantially more than in previous cycles.
Currently, only around a dozen mayors belong to, or are backed by, the RN. The far-right party only runs one city of over 100,000 inhabitants, Perpignan.
One key question ahead of the 2027 vote is what alliances the RN will strike with other parties between the two rounds. Will decades of tradition of shunning the far right hold? Some, especially in mainstream parties on the right, are tempted to do otherwise this time.
In a sign of how important this election is for the RN, 33 out of 119 of its members of parliament are candidates in the municipal elections.
WHICH CITIES AND PARTIES TO WATCH
– Marseille is a long-time conservative city which the left won in the last ballot in 2020, and which all main parties, including the RN, are fighting over.
– Paris is another key battleground. For decades a city led by conservatives, it has had a Socialist mayor since 2001.
– The RN is also targeting Toulon, a city of 180,000 in southern France, which it already ruled under its previous name, the National Front, from 1995 to 2001.
– The left did well across France in the last municipal elections in 2020. It is now weakened nationally. Whether it can keep some of the cities it won last time, such as Nantes and Montpellier for the Socialists, or Lyon and Strasbourg for the Greens, will be in focus.
– The hard-left France Unbowed, which like the RN has never been strong in local elections, is also hoping to make gains, including in the Seine-Saint-Denis area where it has several members of parliament.
– The conservative Republicans (LR) have lost heavily in the last national elections but have long been strong in municipal elections.
– President Emmanuel Macron’s allies hold relatively few municipalities, limiting the potential for an anti-government vote.
– Menton, a quiet Riviera town popular with retirees, is bound to attract attention. Former President Nicolas Sarkozy’s son Louis, openly inspired by Trump-style rhetoric, is a candidate there.
DISPARATE ISSUES MAKE THE OUTCOMES HARD TO PREDICT
There are nearly 35,000 separate elections, many of which are focused on local issues and are not reviewed by pollsters, making them hard to predict. Nationwide, security, housing and local taxes are among key issues for voters in this election, surveys show.
Another factor making those elections hard to predict is how they work. A list that wins an absolute majority in the first round takes control of the municipality. Failing that, all lists with 10% or more advance to the second round. Those with at least 5% can merge with larger lists. This system often leads to three- or four-way runoffs, making the second round quite unpredictable.
There could also potentially be an impact from the killing of far-right activist Quentin Deranque, who was beaten to death in February in a fight with alleged hard-left activists. The incident soured the mood towards France Unbowed, a poll showed.
WHEN ARE THE RESULTS DUE?
Voting starts at 8 a.m. (0700 GMT) on March 15 and closes between 1700 GMT and 1900 GMT, depending on the city. In most medium to large cities, there will be a second round on March 22. Voting times are the same. Results will trickle in on those evenings.
(Writing by Ingrid Melander;Editing by Alison Williams)
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