FACTBOX-Bank of England sets out economic scenarios in July meeting

LONDON, July 30 (Reuters) – The Bank of England left interest rates on hold at 3.75% on Thursday after a split 6-3 vote by its Monetary Policy Committee.

Below is a summary of the ​economic scenarios it set out. They factor in a high chance ‌of two rate hikes by Q3 2027 as priced by financial markets.

CENTRAL PROJECTION

Inflation peaks at 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2026 then falls below target to 1.7% in Q1 2028 and then rises to 1.9% in Q3 2029.

The economy grows at an ‌annual ​rate of 1.1% in Q3 2026 and Q3 ⁠2027, then 1.7% in Q3 ⁠2028 and 1.6% in Q3 2029.

Oil prices follow the market curve and gradually decline from $76 per barrel during Q3 2026 to around $71 at the end of the forecast period.

Natural gas futures peak at just over ​123 pence per therm in the fourth quarter before declining to a little under 60 pence by the end of the forecast horizon.

The energy ⁠shock causes moderate second-round inflationary effects.

MILDER SCENARIO

Inflation ⁠reaches 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2026, 2.4% in ​Q3 2027 and 1.7% in Q3 2028 and Q3 2029.

Growth is an annual ​1.1% in Q3 2026 and Q3 2026, then 1.6% in ‌Q3 2028 and Q3 2029.

Oil and gas future prices are similar to the period after the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed, around 3% and 6% lower than in the central scenario.

There are no new second-round effects as ⁠a looser labour market and weak demand limit workers’ bargaining and firms’ pricing power.

ADVERSE SCENARIO

Inflation reaches 3.1% in Q3 2026, 4.1% in Q3 2027, 2.8% in ⁠Q3 2028 and 2.4% ‌in Q3 2029.

Growth is at 1.1% in Q3 2026, ⁠slows to 0.9% in Q3 2027, then rises to ​1.6% in ‌Q3 2028 and 1.7% in Q3 2029.

The oil price ​is 30% ⁠higher on average than the central projection and gas is around 60% higher, but lower than the Bank of England’s most severe scenario in April.

Persistently elevated energy prices lead to inflation expectations drifting higher, causing stronger and more persistent second-round effects than in the central scenario.

(Reporting by Yoruk Bahceli; editing by David ​Milliken)

((david.milliken@thomsonreuters.com))

Keywords: BRITAIN BOE/SCENARIOS