By Mike Dolan
Jan 22 –
What matters in U.S. and global markets today
By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets
World stocks bounced back after Trump’s U-turn on Greenland tariffs late Wednesday, leaving markets pondering what the whole four-day drama was for – except as a reminder of how erratic U.S. policymaking has become.
With Trump in Davos all day Thursday, anxiety remains about the potential for further twists and turns, partly explaining why this week’s losses have not yet all been erased despite the apparent détente. But the February 1 tariff threat has been removed for now.
I’ll get into all that and more below.
But first, check out my latest column on just how extreme market positioning was to kick off the year – and the risk of mixing rising geopolitical conflict with an already stretched “hyper bull” market.
And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.
DAVOS DÉTENTE
The pan-European STOXX index was up more than 1% in early trading on Thursday, following the S&P 500’s 1.16% rise yesterday – its biggest in two months – on news of the Greenland deal. The VIX index, or so-called fear gauge, fell back towards baseline levels after hitting a year-to-date high on Tuesday.
Gold slipped from Wednesday’s all-time high of $4,887.82 per ounce as tensions eased and investors sought riskier assets, but it remains elevated above $4,800 amid the still febrile geopolitical situation.
Indeed, details about the deal struck by Trump and NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte remain sparse. While Trump’s sudden shift in tone has defused tensions, European diplomats noted the dispute was not yet resolved and Denmark’s Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen reiterated the importance of Danish sovereignty and Greenlandic self-determination.
Whatever was agreed, it will not involve a U.S. takeover of Greenland. Trump noted all parties were “very happy” with the deal, which he said touched on security and minerals and would last “forever”. Secretary-General Rutte said on Thursday the deal would focus on guarding against Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic and that NATO allies would have to step up on security in the region.
Meantime, Treasury yields retreated, helped by a decent 20-year bond auction and signals from the U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday that justices would not support Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Conservative justice Brett Kavanaugh, for instance, noted that a “low bar” for dismissals by the president would “weaken, if not shatter, the independence of the Federal Reserve”.
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its January meeting, and investors will get more clues on the policy outlook on Thursday with the release of November’s PCE inflation estimate, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Attention now switches back to the corporate earnings season. Intel tops today’s calendar, with its stock surging 12% on Wednesday ahead of the report. Its fortunes improved last year due to the AI data center boom and the U.S. government’s decision to take a stake in the company.
Other chipmakers jumped on Wednesday too, with South Korea’s stocks racing ahead on Thursday, now easily making the country’s index the best performer of the year with gains near 20%.
Chart of the day
Intel shareholders are more optimistic about the company’s results than they have been for many quarters. Investors are betting the turnaround CEO Lip-Bu Tan promised is taking root, both because rapid data center buildouts are fueling demand for its traditional server chips and because the U.S. government took a stake in the chipmaker last year. Intel’s stock surged another 12% on Wednesday, ahead of its quarterly earnings report due out later today, bringing its gains for the past 12 months to 152%.
Today’s events to watch
* U.S. Q3 GDP revision (8:30 AM EST), weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM EST), November PCE price index (10:00 AM EST)
* U.S. Treasury sells 10 year inflation-protected securities, 2-year floating rate notes
* U.S. President Donald Trump participates in ‘Board of Peace’ charter announcement
* European Council President Antonio Costa convenes a special EU summit in Brussels
* U.S. corporate earnings: Abbott Laboratories, Freeport-McMoRan, General Electric, Intel, Procter & Gamble
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(By Mike Dolan)
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